#49 – FOMO Freddy, Jim Cramer’s Pizza, and Productive Financial Strategies

Jeff Lloyd [00:00:53]:
Wes, good to be in the studio this morning with you on a Sunday morning.

Wes Moss [00:00:57]:
So many, I would say these are big global headlines that mattered this week and I want to at least go through some of these that China tariffs, maybe there’s more opportunity than obstacle. Kind of an interesting perspective on that this past week. And I wanted to share that today. Black Friday in Cyber Monday numbers, it’s staggering. The consumer continues to be so resilient to 197 million shoppers in stores or online, which is almost a record. And we had this kind of this compressed season. So that looks good. The bill has come due in France, South Korea, that’s a democracy on the brink.

Wes Moss [00:01:41]:
So we’ve got a lot happening here. Jeff Lloyd and then another, as you would say, all time high. All time high. Pretty good.

Jeff Lloyd [00:01:50]:
You know, we made, we made a, we made a joke the last couple of years. We talked about inflation so much that we were going to rename the show Inflation Matters. I feel like we’ve talked about all time highs quite frequently lately, which is a good thing. But that doesn’t mean it’s always going to happen or we’re always going to talk each and every week about a new all time.

Wes Moss [00:02:15]:
I thought you were going to say all time highs matter. All time high.

Jeff Lloyd [00:02:18]:
That’s where I was going.

Wes Moss [00:02:19]:
That’s where you’re going.

Jeff Lloyd [00:02:20]:
But yeah, no, this past week we saw new all time highs for not only the S&P 500, we saw it for the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ. So all three of the major indices reaching new all time highs.

Wes Moss [00:02:33]:
And I wanted to bring this up just because I think this is a cool life experience. You get to go and I know we’re shifting gears. We’re going to get back to all time highs and this kind of just fascinating market. Also out of the top one or out of the top 50 stocks in the Russell 1000 this year. Only one of them is in the MAG7, which means the market’s real. So it’s that famous group of a few major horsepower cylinders have been moving the market all last year. It’s everybody else. It’s everybody else except for one of them.

Wes Moss [00:03:08]:
We’re going to get to that. But let’s go back to your bucket list trip that you took this week. It was less than 24 hours.

Jeff Lloyd [00:03:17]:
It was a quick trip.

Wes Moss [00:03:18]:
It was like you teleported.

Jeff Lloyd [00:03:19]:
It was kind of an all time bucket list trip that I’ve always wanted to do. We talk about core pursuits on the show a good bit. A couple months ago we talked about what my core pursuits were. One of them was travel for sporting events.

Wes Moss [00:03:34]:
It’s a very niche, very niche oriented. It’s not just travel. It’s not just sports. It’s travel for sports.

Jeff Lloyd [00:03:41]:
And that’s what I did this past Wednesday I went to see the Auburn Tigers take on the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor State.

Wes Moss [00:03:50]:
Only time you’re gonna see me rooting for Auburn, it’s against Duke. And again Duke prevails the in Auburn just beat the tail. This is a couple weeks ago.

Jeff Lloyd [00:04:02]:
Let’s not get into the details of the game.

Wes Moss [00:04:04]:
Let’s just talk about seasons going straight down the drain.

Jeff Lloyd [00:04:08]:
Crowd. It was phenomenal. It lived up to all that.

Wes Moss [00:04:12]:
And you got to go to Chapel Hill. You get to go to Franklin Street.

Jeff Lloyd [00:04:14]:
We stopped by Franklin street and Chapel Hill for a little visit because your Tar Heels played the Alabama Crimson Tide. Now I’m not going to talk about who won that game either because I don’t think either of us would be happy with that outcome right now.

Wes Moss [00:04:29]:
The Tar Heels basketball program is not on the top of the hill again.

Jeff Lloyd [00:04:37]:
But we did go to a restaurant called Top of the Hill. That was awesome.

Wes Moss [00:04:40]:
At least you can get into that restaurant. All right. So. All right. So we got a countdown to Christmas and Hanukkah. It’s what, two weeks away? Two and a half weeks away. More all time highs. Dow Jones, NASDAQ S&P 500.

Wes Moss [00:04:52]:
Pretty fascinating. Again, most of last year and this is I think was frustrating, particularly if you were a dividend oriented investor for let’s go back to 2023. It was a good year overall for stocks, but it kind of was very, very focused. It was laser focused on a handful. The Mag 7, the Magnificent 7. It’s only a few stocks that are moving the market and that was pretty frustrating I think for a lot of investors. And this year and we’ve Been waiting for this return to a little bit more normalcy or maybe just reversion of the mean. The market’s not supposed to be five stocks, six stocks, seven stocks.

Wes Moss [00:05:32]:
So this year it hasn’t been in fact only one of the seven that have been the best performers in the entire Russell 1000. So we’re looking even more broadly than The S&P 500 is one of the Mag 7s. It’s Nvidia call it 90 plus percent for the year but that’s the only one. You don’t see any of the other big tech names in that group of big time performers in the top 50. You just see a much broader diversified mix of financial companies, some smaller technology companies, media companies, energy companies, retailers. You go through this list and There are number 50 on the list. Number 550 down the list of the top performers was still up 84% for so far this year. The year’s almost wrapped up at this point but let’s call that a really strong rate of return.

Wes Moss [00:06:27]:
Number 25 on the list. This is a transmission company up 105%. Lots of smaller companies many people haven’t even heard of. Lots of different sectors up 80, 90, 100%. It’s not just well this year it’s not. It’s not that the banks haven’t hasn’t done well. They still have had a strong performance for the most part but they’re not even cracking the top 50 in the Russell 1000. All of that to say is that we’ve had a much broader stock market.

Wes Moss [00:06:58]:
I would look at that as a healthier stock market. More people participating in a good way. So I think it’s been a very good year for 401k accounts.

Jeff Lloyd [00:07:08]:
No, I think so too and it’s just nice to see a bunch of different sectors participating in the rally. We talk about tech, tech, tech, tech the last couple years. Now you’re seeing utilities, now you’re seeing energy companies, now you’re seeing financials. So you’re seeing not just one sector.

Wes Moss [00:07:30]:
Here’s my chart that you were. This is what you were probably talking about.

Jeff Lloyd [00:07:33]:
Yes.

Wes Moss [00:07:33]:
Right. So right if you just chart out here how have different sectors go have gone so far this year. And I remember my medfit and shut is how I remember all the sectors. Staples, healthcare, utilities, telecom, materials, energy, discretionary financials, industrials. These are why acronyms have helped me over the years. The but the really one of the worst sector as I’m plugging this into where we are so far for the Year up about high single digits. It’s health care, so that’s kind of been the laggard. Energy is only up 15%.

Wes Moss [00:08:09]:
Staples are only up 17%. But then you look at financials, up 36% on the year, utilities up 31%. And the S and P of course is going to be somewhere in between those sectors, around 20 high 20. So we’ve had a, it’s not just been a one trick pony this year. It’s not just been a few horses pulling their weight. It is a, it’s multiple different sectors that are either having pretty good years or really good years. And that’s been, I think, really good for investors. The other thing to remember here is that, and as we wrap up this year, we’re getting pretty close here.

Wes Moss [00:08:47]:
We at the very beginning of the year when we started having all time highs, we said look after 5, 6, 7, 8, 10. All time highs. Wait a minute, all time high. That means I shouldn’t be invested because the market’s already done well. Well, we know over the course of history and doesn’t always have to repeat itself, but we’ve seen very strong data that shows once you start making these all time highs, like in 1995 there were 77 of them and in 1998 there were 47 of them and in 2014 there were 53 of them. So they come in these not just onesie twosies, we’re talking about dozens of times. You’ll get an all time high once markets have the momentum to start plowing grounds. A lot of these all time highs have been fractional as well.

Wes Moss [00:09:29]:
It’s, you look at the market in a given day and the S and P is up a tenth or a tenth of a percent. So it’s almost going nowhere. Yet it was an all time high. So these, they don’t have to be dramatic in any given day. They can just be a point higher, two points higher. And that counts as an entirely new brand new on our chart where we’re tracking all time highs, a brand new all time high. So let’s not let the number of more than 55 new all time highs in the S&P 500. Let’s.

Wes Moss [00:09:58]:
It’s not as dramatic as it sounds because a lot of them have just been just a, just a grain of rice higher and a grain of rice higher, however, takes a lot of good things to happen, we believe, and this is why we think they happen in these large clumps, is that you got to have a lot of good things happening in order to get to the point where you’re starting to make all time highs, probably the biggest, most recent catalyst. And we’ll go through some, some of these. It’s very interesting to see what, what have different sectors done, different stocks, different categories done since the election. So the election on November 5, what happened a month later. We have that data because we’ve now had at least a month plus and we can compare that to 2016, the first time Trump won the election. What did the market look like a month out and what did it look like a month out here in 2024?

Jeff Lloyd [00:10:53]:
Let’s pull that out, let’s go to it. It’s interesting data to go through. And yeah, like we said, we are now just a bit more than a month away from the election.

Wes Moss [00:11:03]:
See, here’s what we looked at is that take a month post election, the two different times Trump has won, right? 2016amonth later, 2024amonth later. And it’s not just that. I think that it’s not just that Trump won and that the GOP won and both are considered, let’s call that market friendly, stock market friendly. It’s also because there was a clear winner and there wasn’t this what we thought of a week or weeks of uncertainty around recounts. It just was, hey, we woke up the next morning and we knew who won and we knew who won the Senate and then we pretty much knew who won the House. That was confirmed what, two weeks later in 2016, a month post Trump winning, It was positive. The market was positive. We’re going back eight years now, but somewhat of a mixed bag.

Wes Moss [00:11:57]:
S&P 500 was up 3. So it was good. The latest one month period here in 2024 post election, up over four and a half percent. So it was better than, I would say better than good again, 2016, the Dow was up approximately 5% a month out. Here we are up a little over 6% a month out. Tech was down 1%. If we go back to that 2016 timeframe here, tech up around 4%. Staples, think about consumer staple type companies.

Wes Moss [00:12:25]:
I always think Proctor Gamble. I think Soda Pop and pringles. Staples were down 4% in the last iteration of the election. And here we are a month out from this most recent election. Staples up 3%. Utilities in 2016 were down 5% today, post election a month later, up 2%. The one thing that is consistent between the two is that the volatility index or the Vix is almost identical. Down 35% in 2016, down 35% in 2024.

Wes Moss [00:13:00]:
And of course, the Vix is the measure of volatility and fear in the marketplace. So it’s kind of the way I look at this. It’s just the investor sigh of relief. Lower volatility, lower fear, because we have some. A higher dose of certainty. I want to talk about four separate countries. China, U.S. france, and South Korea, because we’ve had some big, big things happen in each one of those where you tell me first, this is a global.

Jeff Lloyd [00:13:29]:
This is a global segment. And you know what? I want to. I want to start with South Korea, because any time you see a headline and we talk about scary headlines a lot and how to ignore them, but it said martial law.

Wes Moss [00:13:45]:
That was.

Jeff Lloyd [00:13:45]:
And that. That got me to click.

Wes Moss [00:13:47]:
It’s almost. Martial law is the cousin. Almost. I don’t even want to say it. It’s like the cousin of nuclear war. It’s. You think, wait a minute. Like, when would you really get martial law? When some.

Wes Moss [00:14:01]:
Like an alien invasion, like, martial law is usually just in the movies right now. Yes, we’ve had martial law, but it’s a very scary news headline, and it usually comes up in red. And that’s exactly what I saw on my phone or my computer. Martial law in South Korea. Wait a minute. South Korea is supposed to be a very stable economic powerhouse. This is not North Korea.

Jeff Lloyd [00:14:24]:
This is not North Korea. That’s right.

Wes Moss [00:14:25]:
This is South Korea. It’s a democracy. And one of the parties thought the other party was again, calling the other party more of a bunch of communists and declared martial law. Now what. So that in itself is scary. What is interesting, though, is that it was rescinded within six hours, and it was in the middle of the night. So there was martial law early in the. Let’s call it early in the night.

Wes Moss [00:14:49]:
The futures and the currency essentially dropped. The stock market dropped 7%. The currency dropped 7%. And that all happened. And it was so shocking that I think that they quickly realized, like, whoa, this is a mistake. This is not the time. This is not Armageddon. So martial law is crazy, and they lifted it.

Wes Moss [00:15:10]:
So, again, the political future for the president of South Korea, of course, is extraordinarily not great. And it was interesting that at least we saw some rectification of that pretty quickly. But again, this is why we’re always on edge, because the world’s a scary, unstable place. Next, another government in turmoil. France. Not that we. Those listening here on a Sunday morning probably care all that much about France, but they’ve got a bunch of They’ve got financial turmoil, they got political turmoil. Prime Minister Michael Bagne expected resigning because of a vote of no confidence.

Wes Moss [00:15:51]:
Here’s what’s interesting about France. They’ve essentially been fighting with the budget. They’ve got a 6% budget deficit, interestingly on a much smaller scale, just like we do here in the United States. So they’re fighting over how to cut the budget. Well, it’s not easy to cut the budget. So both sides are all different parties are not coming into agreement. They do a vote of no confidence. They again, they say this guy can’t lead us, so he gets essentially booted.

Wes Moss [00:16:18]:
Macron’s looking for a replacement. The president’s looking for replacement of the prime minister. And the bill has come due. And it’s a really interesting example of that. What is also interesting is that we have seen some countries figure out their budget pretty quickly. Argentina cut their budget by 30%. They did it in about 30 days. Pretty extreme, but it didn’t cause is nearly as much economic turmoil as you might have thought.

Wes Moss [00:16:46]:
Well, at least we get two out of the four countries we wanted to talk about in this global round the world Money Matters here on a Sunday morning. More MONEY MATTERS straight ahead. If you’ve ever done a Jane Fonda workout or if you remember as a kid, Rocky running the steps and if Michael keaton is still Mr. Mom to you, then guess what, it’s officially time to do some retirement planning. It’s Wes Moss from Money Matters. Weren’t those the good old days? Well, with a little bit of retirement planning, there are plenty of good days ahead. Schedule an appointment with our team today@yourwealth.com that’s y o u r your wealth.com cyber Monday. 64 million people shopped on Cyber Monday online.

Wes Moss [00:17:35]:
Of course, now that is down from 73 million. So it’s less. Wait a minute, it’s less but we spent more. In aggregate, we spent 12.4 billion on that one particular day. Here’s another shift. And again, this just goes back to the friction of shopping. Last year, 55% of those cyber purchases were on devices on a smartphone or a Tablet. This year, 63% of those online shoppers were using their smartphone, which is exactly the story that I saw over that course of the really from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, just noticing that there are more and more retailers that are making they’re taking the friction down to almost nothing.

Wes Moss [00:18:20]:
The next step. And this will just keep going. They’re going to eventually. And we’ve already seen that artificial intelligence is starting to work. So Amazon’s already come out and said that their generative AI it’s getting so good. It’s, it’s helping people buy more, it’s suggesting more. I’ve used it now a couple of times where I’m just saying, hey, what’s the best pair of socks I can find? And boom. Well, here are three amazing ones or hey, what was my last order? I don’t think it’s not come yet.

Wes Moss [00:18:50]:
And, and boom, it’s here’s here. It doesn’t even say take a link. It just shows you your last order. So it just keeps getting better. At some point in the not too distant future, there’s going to be a psychologist on the website that justifies your spending for you are you feel a little guilty right now because you’re buying this sweater. But here’s the thing. You know how often you’re going to wear this sweater and the price per wear is probably 50 cents. You should get three of these sweaters.

Wes Moss [00:19:20]:
Of course. Ding, ding, ding. It’s just going to get that much better.

Jeff Lloyd [00:19:24]:
You’re calling that a psychologist? Wes, that’s. That’s a salesperson.

Wes Moss [00:19:28]:
It is.

Jeff Lloyd [00:19:29]:
That’s just a, that’s just an online salesperson.

Wes Moss [00:19:31]:
It is.

Jeff Lloyd [00:19:32]:
Right.

Wes Moss [00:19:33]:
Except it’s at scale because it’s going to be done through artificial intelligence and it’s just going to be that easy. You’re going to have to pair like a Clark Howard though app over top of that to talk you off the ledge of don’t buy the three.

Jeff Lloyd [00:19:47]:
You don’t need this purchase.

Wes Moss [00:19:48]:
Don’t go there. Go to Walmart or Sam’s Club and get a red polo shirt. That’s all Clark wears.

Jeff Lloyd [00:19:56]:
That sock only has one hole in it. Those will suffice. You can keep wearing them. Right.

Wes Moss [00:20:02]:
So we saw just this incredible 197 million people on Cyber Monday or I guess Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Slightly lower than what we have seen in the last year, but just shy of that person record. But we continue to set spending records and that’s what’s happening here in the United States. So it’s the resilient US Consumer which is in. And I don’t know if we need to talk about this all this much. I just want to mention I think this will be a theme for next year. So I’m not going to spend, I’m going to spend very little time on that. And that’s China.

Wes Moss [00:20:34]:
Yes. The market’s done well since the election. Yes. We have what seems to be and was in 2016 and beyond, a more market friendly, business friendly administration and Senate and House. The reality here is that one question I got over the holidays from in laws and people were saying, hey, how can the tariff thing be good? And if you really think about it in economics, it’s not necessarily good if applied to the letter of the law. Let’s say, of course, if you put 100% tariffs on every country coming to the United States, the whole global economy would collapse. It just wouldn’t work. But that’s not what is going to happen.

Wes Moss [00:21:14]:
There’ll be some level of tariff scrutiny. And what is also interesting, and if you’ve noticed, we’ve all noticed this, who is Trump’s seemingly right side, right hand man these days? It’s a guy named Elon Musk. What does Elon Musk like to do? He likes to build cars in China. So I have a feeling for all the rhetoric that we’re hearing that China needs to be hammered. You know who’s gotten more trade scrutiny in the last month than any other country? Canada. Canada’s scared. Trump joked that if they really wanted to do away with any sort of tax or tariffs or they wanted to again make it easier to shop with the United States, they should just become one of the 51st states. Now they were joking about this, but I think there was some nervous laughter around that in the room.

Wes Moss [00:22:05]:
Whereas you still haven’t heard the real quite the hawkishness around China ever since the election. Again, maybe we’re wrong about this, but Elon Musk’s influence may tamper that a little bit. I also think that it’s a very good talking point and there’s a lot of bark to it. The question will be how much real bite will that we see in tariffs and what countries. That’s a topic for next year.

Jeff Lloyd [00:22:30]:
I think that’s a theme for next year. I agree with that. 2025.

Wes Moss [00:22:35]:
Have we talked about FOMO Freddie anytime recently?

Jeff Lloyd [00:22:40]:
It’s been a while since we’ve talked about FOMO Freddie, but I think we need to bring Freddie back onto the show this morning.

Wes Moss [00:22:48]:
Maybe from time to time we’ll go through the fundamental foundations of money matters. What do we believe as investors? And we’re not going to go through all these today. But again, equity investing is number one, mostly stocks paired with safety assets upon what makes you be able to be a better equity investor? Knowing that stocks create some real emotional pain because we have big drawdowns, it’s inevitable. Number two is patience and longevity. And that’s where fomo Freddie comes in three, high level diversification. Four, investing I think today is both easier and harder than it’s ever been. And five, know what you’re driving towards, AKA plan. Those all work.

Wes Moss [00:23:31]:
They work over time. They’ve worked this year. They perennially are guidestones or pillars to long term successful investing. But number two is what we’re going to focus on today. And that’s the patience part of the equation. And we all know as investors, and it’s easy to look back in retrospect, look, the shade today was because we planted a tree a long time ago. We know that it takes a long time for investors to really compound and grow just like it does a massive oak tree. But patience and being able to sit in the game from a very long period of time, that’s behavioral and it has very little to do with picking any particular investments.

Wes Moss [00:24:11]:
But it takes massive patience now to make it even harder. There’s a guy named FOMO Freddy that’s always lurking around the cocktail party corner. You know this guy Freddy, he says, I sure am glad I got into bitcoin, which by the way, this week hit over 100,000. You say, man, I wish I was in bitcoin. My stocks have been good, but not as good as Freddie’s bitcoin. And Freddie seems to always be all in on whatever’s already done the best. And you’re thinking, wow, he’s probably done. I’ve done, I’ve done great, it’s been a great year, but he’s done even better.

Wes Moss [00:24:49]:
And that’s the reality of the investment world we live in. If you’re not picked on by the media that, oh, you missed this or you missed that, then you’re picked off by cocktail party FOMO Freddy. And we have a study though, that shows kind of the perils of that. And I’m not going to. This is not just the missing the best days in the market. This is, I think, a more realistic version of how fomo, as in fear of missing out. I probably should have said that. Fomo, I think most people know that fear of missing out.

Wes Moss [00:25:24]:
Freddie, he always wants to be in what is already done really, really well. We have some statistics around this in the big investment categories that people look at. So think about growth investing, value investing, pure index investing, momentum investing, low volatility or min. Volatility investing. These are big investment styles or categories that over time they do similarly. But in any given year they may be relatively divergent. So there’s usually a bell of the ball and there’s usually one of those categories. If you stack it up every year and you look at it looks like a periodic table.

Wes Moss [00:25:58]:
If you give them a different color because they’re one, one will have a good year and then the next year it’s a bad one. We hear you the bell of the ball and you’re the best category. The next year you’re the New York Jets. And that’s what happens with this oscillation and fomo. Freddy does something that he makes sound like it’s the right thing to do, which is, hey, I was in the best category last year. Oh, I was in value this year. But guess what? He did it because it did well last year. And he keeps switching and switching.

Wes Moss [00:26:27]:
There’s a really interesting story about looking at some of the major investment categories. So we start with the s and P500, of course. Then you look at value investing, which is companies with lower valuations relative to their peers. You look at the growth index, again, kind of the inverse of that, the quality, let’s call it style of investing. That’s companies with really strong fundamentals and they’re perhaps more efficient with their capital relative to their peers. They’ve got metrics that put land in that category. You’ve got minimum volatility is another area, momentum. So these are companies that are, you’re always rolling to the companies that have been doing well.

Wes Moss [00:27:06]:
This is called momentum investing. And these are all different styles, if you will. What’s interesting is that over time they have a similar rate of return. If you look over a 20, 25 year period, as an example, the S&P 500, I’m going to round numbers here, 7.9% per year since then, let’s call it 8% approximately. Well, so has growth and so has value. One is at 7.7 or they’re both at 7.7 growth and values at 7.7. Different styles. But over time they’ve done virtually an identical rate of return.

Wes Moss [00:27:44]:
The momentum as an example, as a category, if you’re, if you’re, if you’re smart about how that works, or in a momentum fund or index that’s been about eight and a half percent. So again, similar, maybe a little bit better. And then the quality index, if you will call it a little over eight and a half percent. So that’s great, right? They’ve all done pretty well. But guess what? If you were to have in any given year look back and say, well, that did the best last year. So for example, growth as a category did the best in 2020. And then the next year you chose that and you do that every year. So you get to see in hindsight this one did the best.

Wes Moss [00:28:23]:
And now it’s my new investment. Well, that’s FOMO Freddy. And what happens here is that you over that same period of time, you’ve got all these different investment styles that have gone from 7% to almost 9%. And by switching to the one that did the best last year, because your fear of missing out, you only average a little over six and a half percent. So instead of 500,000 turning into 3.5 or 3.9 million, you end up with 2.5 million. The difference is pretty dramatic. It’s over a million dollars over that 25 year difference in less rate of return on 500,000 by switching to what has already done well in the past. And that is why we want to stay away from always retrospectively chasing something that’s already been really good because of the fear of missing out.

Jeff Lloyd [00:29:17]:
And we know as investors have patience and have some longevity and at the end of the day I think patience is going to win.

Wes Moss [00:29:27]:
We all know FOMO Freddie, we don’t want to be FOMO Freddie. And today is just a reminder of that very important foundational component which is patience and longevity and not hopping to what already has done well. And that’s a theme that we’re not going to flip flop on here on Money Matters. Jeff Lloyd, thanks so much for being here in studio again, co host Jeff Lloyd. You can find me and Jeff Lloyd easy to do so throughout the week@yourwealth.com that’s why you are your wealth. Have a wonderful rest of your day.

Mallory Boggs [00:30:06]:
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