#104 – Market Context for 2026: What the Headlines Are Really Discussing

Wes Moss [00:00:35]:
And something else that’s fascinating that we’ve talked a lot about over the last couple of years about real estate, particularly in the state of Georgia, where we are the highest institutionally owned single family house market in the nation. Almost a quarter or supposedly a quarter of of all rental homes in Georgia are owned by the big institutional owners, the blackrocks of the world, the Blackstones of the world. And there is potential now legislation coming around that. And then of course, the big question for 2026 that we’re all trying to figure out and everyone wants to know the outlook for 2026. Rather than make a bunch of predictions, we’re going to answer one question question which is can the market really have another good year in 2026? Connor Miller, what do you think? Just yes or no, good or bad?

Connor Miller [00:01:30]:
Can it? Absolutely. I would say there’s a lot of evidence, I think, which we’ll get to that we can point to for reasons to be bullish going into the year.

Wes Moss [00:01:40]:
And I like the way you wrote this outlook this year, which I’ll give you a ton of credit for, is we’ve done this in different ways. We’ve had seven predictions for the new year. We’ve 10 predictions. I think when it was 2015, we got to 15 was too many. So we backed it up to seven this year. I like your approach, which is answering five key questions to give us some insight so that we can answer that question. One, what does history tell us about maturable markets? Certainly a mature bull market. It’s three years old.

Wes Moss [00:02:15]:
We’re in the fourth year. What does that mean? By the way, the first week of the year already started off fairly strong, at least for the Dow. Number two, is I finally ready to deliver on some of the promises? Number three, what about the $500 billion in tax refunds? What does that mean for economic growth? Four, what about interest rates? Is the Fed going to keep lowering rates? And then what do the lower rates potentially mean for equities and for fixed income for stock and bond investors in your 401k? And then five, it’s midterm election Time. What kind of volatility do we usually see around midterm elections? So we’re going to get to all of that a couple of, let’s call it policy. This is a busy week for Connor Miller and myself. There’s so much to do the first couple weeks of the year and I think it was a busy week for the President. He came back from Mar a Lago and the next thing we know we have 10 new things happening in the world. It’s almost like a little bit of a backlog.

Wes Moss [00:03:17]:
And it all gets unleashed this past week, the one that I think is fascinating and really points more to the Southeast more than anything. It has to do with housing. And evidently the President is looking at the housing market and saying he does not like the large swaths of single family homes that get bought up in the Sunbelt where we live by the big private equity firms. I was in Chapel Hill a year or so ago. A friend of mine, maybe this is a couple of years ago. Connor, a friend of mine works for one of these giant private equity type firms. And this is before I had seen, I remember it was 60 Minutes or 2020 Dateline. I don’t did a story about, I think it was BlackRock or Blackstone buying up this.

Wes Moss [00:04:07]:
You know, they own the whole neighborhood and they are making this. A great PR person was making a case like this is, this is what people want. Sure, we own all of them. Aren’t you taking away the American dream? No, we’re actually providing these homes without having to deal with ownership and fix the roof. And there’s a generation that might really like this in this model. So the underlying current of that story is it’s pretty hard to compete if the trillion dollar private equity firms are coming into neighborhoods and they’re buying the entire half the neighborhood or the whole neighborhood. And I asked my buddy, a long time college friend, I was like, how many, how many houses are you guys buying? You know what his answer was?

Connor Miller [00:04:48]:
Tell me.

Wes Moss [00:04:49]:
All of them. He said, he said all of them. Every single one we could get, we can get. Now that was also a long time ago. This is actually a couple years ago. And it was when interest rates were low. So the private equity firm said if we can borrow at 2 and a half percent at the time, 3% of the time, they knew they could get rent that covered that they essentially, in a very large scale almost had an instant return day one. They were making money on these investments and they were using leverage to do it at a low rate.

Wes Moss [00:05:24]:
They’re getting let’s call it a 6% yield. They’re borrowing at 2 and a half, really kind of like automatic money. So their philosophy, and I can’t speak for any of them, but if you’re a giant fund like that, and those are the economics, how many houses should we buy, Jim? Jim says all of them, as many as we can. And then that raises an eyebrow. Is it really seem like, is that the American dream for a private equity fund to own half the country’s housing stock? Now the reality is that even though in the state of Georgia and we are the high, it seems like we are the highest, according to the CNBC article that was published this past week, seems like we are far and away have the most activity from the institutions. A quarter of all single family rental homes. These are homes, not necessarily apartments, but single family housing is owned by the institutions. And a fifth, so 20% in Jacksonville and big chunks in Charlotte and big chunks in Tampa.

Wes Moss [00:06:28]:
So if you’re looking at Florida and North Carolina, state of Georgia, there’s an awful lot of that happening. Large investors In Florida, North Carolina, 15% of the market. So it is a problem if you don’t want housing prices to be controlled by a few big players. And I think most Americans would say it kind of be nice to not have to compete with BlackRock or Blackstone. Blackstone, the private equity firm. So we’ll see, we’ll see if there’s legislation around this. But the quote in this article is that for a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American dream. And for too many people, that’s essentially become shouldn’t be the dream of corporations, should be the dream of American folks.

Wes Moss [00:07:15]:
So we’ll see if there is any new legislation around that.

Connor Miller [00:07:18]:
And then just to continue on that, Trump goes on to say, it is for that reason and much more that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single family homes. Like a lot of these announcements, we don’t actually know what this is going to look like.

Wes Moss [00:07:34]:
Right. It’s a long way off.

Connor Miller [00:07:35]:
So is there any actual teeth to this? We don’t know, but definitely something to keep an eye on, specifically in the Southeast.

Wes Moss [00:07:41]:
Speaking of not knowing 100% of how these are going to work because they’re still new and we’ve had a couple Money Matters listeners. And by the way, thank you for the emails saying, hey, why haven’t you covered the Trump accounts yet? So we’ll cover that today. Since we’re on the topic of politics Nothing to, we’re trying to, we’ve always tried to stay completely away from politics unless it’s directly related to economics and investing. And this one fits that bill. And that’s a new account called the, it’s called a Trump account. And I kept looking it up to say, are they really called Trump accounts? I mean you and I were like, wait a minute, there’s got to be another name for them. But no, they’re from what, everything we could find. You go to trumpaccounts.gov if you want to sign up for a Trump account.

Wes Moss [00:08:29]:
And this is how these work. These are for any, any children that are born this year, next year in 2028. And it was how far back into 2025?

Connor Miller [00:08:39]:
January 1st of 20.

Wes Moss [00:08:40]:
So it’s all last year, 5, 6, 7, 2025, 6, 7 and 8.

Connor Miller [00:08:45]:
Four full years.

Wes Moss [00:08:47]:
Any child born that has a Social Security number here in the United States should be able to have a Trump account, which is a tax advantaged savings account. A lot like a traditional IRA with very different ages because now the money becomes an IRA even if it starts at age one, the beneficiaries at age 18. And there’s also an overlay of a 529 as well. So it’s almost a hybrid of an IRA individual retirement account and a 529. I’d say it leans a little bit more towards a traditional retirement account. And you can think of them as IRA starter accounts. And when you file your taxes for 20, 25, again, people probably haven’t, they haven’t done that yet. You then can be eligible to, I guess if you, if you want this to get $1,000 of seed money for that account and it comes from the US Federal government into that account.

Wes Moss [00:09:50]:
But anyone under the age of 18 is eligible to have one of these accounts and fund it themselves. I think that there’s still details that will be hashed out because these don’t go live until July of 2026. July 4, July 4, 2026. The investments are going to be pretty straightforward low cost ETFs, but they evidently need to be.

Connor Miller [00:10:14]:
From reading this again, we’ll get more details. It doesn’t sound like there’s a lot of selection that goes on. I think up until you’re 18, the investment options are pretty much decided for.

Wes Moss [00:10:23]:
You or you may have a short list of options to choose from a little bit like how you would choose for a 401k. So July 4, 2026, and then they become the beneficiary’s account. So your child producer, he’s become a member of the show Baby Larry, the latest addition here in the Money Matters team, our producer Mallory’s almost not, not even one year old. He’s eligible for this thousand dollars. But he doesn’t sound like that account will go live and get funded until sometime in the Latter part of 2026. Then when the money comes out, eventually it is taxable, just like an IRA would be. However, there’s a lot of exemptions for it to be not penalized before the age of 59 and a half. Connor, you made the point is that if you are using it for education and you’re 19 or 20 and you’re taking out a little bit of money, it’s not going to get the 10% penalty because that goes away completely at 59 and a half.

Wes Moss [00:11:30]:
But it wouldn’t get if you’re 20 and your income is only 5 or $10,000, you’re essentially in a zero tax bracket anyway. So unless you were to pull a huge amount out of one of these accounts, then your taxes should be equivalent to something like a 529 plan where yes, that’s specifically not taxed for education, but again, in a really low tax bracket, somebody in their early twenties without a whole lot of income, it should be virtually zero as well and with.

Connor Miller [00:11:58]:
Broader application too, using it for things like school, first time home purchase or even starting a business.

Wes Moss [00:12:04]:
Yeah, I like the addition of starting a business. So it really is this is a brand new financial vehicle. There will probably be millions and millions of these accounts opened up. We’re going to get more and more clarity as we get closer to the summer and the launch of this. So we’ll bring you more on these brand new, call them IRA starter accounts right here on Money Matters. The biggest geopolitical event obviously really in the last year. I would say bigger than as big, maybe not as big as tariffs, but still certainly a shock and awe literally on the news of course was Venezuela and what happened there with Maduro. I think that we’re not a political show and I know that the political shows cover that dramatically and extensively economically.

Wes Moss [00:12:53]:
Clearly the market did not have a negative reaction. The Dow was up almost 1,000 points on Monday and it followed up strongly on Tuesday. So it’s not as though the market said wait a minute, this is a geopolitical event and were nervous about the knock on effects. It’s going to hurt the US Economy, global economy, and it’s a bad thing. So for markets and I would contend that that is absolutely the case. It is not necessarily something that hurts this U.S. economy or the global economy.

Connor Miller [00:13:26]:
And really the only areas of the market where you saw a direct impact was in the energy space. You saw some movement in Chevron. You saw some movement in Exxon, Halliburton and Schlumberger on the potential for doing energy infrastructure projects in Venezuela. But even they were up initially on Monday, by Tuesday, I think they had wiped out most of the gain that they had received.

Wes Moss [00:13:48]:
How much free oil did we get, Connor? Didn’t we get a whole tanker?

Connor Miller [00:13:53]:
50 million barrels.

Wes Moss [00:13:55]:
50 million barrels at what, let’s call it round number 50 bucks?

Connor Miller [00:13:58]:
Yeah, 50 to 55 bucks. So it’s could be as. Could be worth as much as $2.8 billion.

Wes Moss [00:14:03]:
$2.8 billion. That. That doesn’t all fit in one tanker, does it?

Connor Miller [00:14:09]:
I was wondering that.

Wes Moss [00:14:10]:
How much oil that, how much it fits, let’s say how much oil fits in one massive tanker.

Connor Miller [00:14:21]:
While you’re doing that, the other piece of information we got, it just the, the news kept coming. On Wednesday was news related to defense companies and their ability to, to pay dividends and do share buybacks without investing more in their property, their, their plants, their equipment, putting more investment into their company. So again, it’s one of those things. We don’t exactly know how it’s going to work out logistically, but something to keep on the radar.

Wes Moss [00:14:50]:
You just wanted to bring up another Trump political headline that impacts markets. These are direct ties. There’s nothing we can do about it. By the way, a vlcc, which is a very large crude carrier, there’s one bigger, the Ultra. But a regular VLCC is about 2 million barrels of crude. So it’s a lot of tankers going back and forth for that 50 million barrels more. Money matters straight ahead. Our team’s 2025 study of retirees found that happy retirees are two times more likely versus unhappy retirees to simply have a written retirement plan.

Wes Moss [00:15:30]:
Just think you may be able to double your likelihood of happiness by simply taking an hour to sit down and put pen to paper. If you’d like a financial advisor to help you tackle the trickier questions that need answers, reach out to our team@your wealth.com. that’s why wealth.com Connor, you’ve spent a lot of time trying to answer the question about can we have another. Another good year? Three in a row. Another good year would be four. Doesn’t it feel long in the tooth and trying to answer the question can the market rally in 2026. Can we have a good year? So why don’t we start out with what history tells us about, I would say a more seasoned, a more mature bull market.

Connor Miller [00:16:16]:
That’s really how we got to this topic was thinking about this being three plus years now into this bull market. You’re always trying to think of things that could be interesting to talk about in a letter like this. And we opened it up to our investment committee.

Wes Moss [00:16:32]:
And you’re doing a zoominar this week too about this.

Connor Miller [00:16:34]:
We do have a seminar coming up for our families. We opened this up to the investment committee and actually got some really good feedback of one question that I’m getting all the time is just given that the market’s done so well over the last three years, what does that mean for the future? And to put it more frankly, can the market really have another good year? And so starting with what history tells us about maturing bull markets, we have data going back basically all the way to the 1920s. And on average, and we’ve talked about this plenty of times on the show before, but on average, bull markets last about six years. So 58 months is the average bull market. And they generally return about 172%. Some last longer than that. You know, we’ve seen bull markets that have lasted 9, 10, 11 years. We’ve seen bull markets like one that we recently came out of from 2020 to 2022, only last about two years.

Connor Miller [00:17:28]:
And so far we are call it three and a half years. About 40 months into the current bull market, we’ve returned about 90%. And so all we’re trying to say.

Wes Moss [00:17:39]:
Here, in the Average of the 58, the almost five years, the last almost five years is 172.

Connor Miller [00:17:47]:
Right.

Wes Moss [00:17:48]:
Which would leave us with what kind of return to get to that average?

Connor Miller [00:17:52]:
About another 40%. So we’re up 90% so far. It would be about another 40% to get to 172. And again, past performance is not indicative of future results. But using history as a guide, it’s totally fair to say that we could have further room to run in the current bull market.

Wes Moss [00:18:13]:
About the composition though too, if you go back three years, the first year of this bull market was pretty darn narrow. It was probably one of the most narrow markets we’ve ever seen. Only a few names driving the index, which we all have come to know is obviously the MAG7. And if you look at 23 and 24, still very few stocks within the S&P 500 actually beat the S&P 500. And then in 2025 it was, I would say a much better year for a diversified investor. We saw lots of different market caps do well, different size companies, different sectors and different subsectors that we saw strong performance in a lot of different areas.

Connor Miller [00:18:56]:
Yeah. And to put this into perspective, in 2023 and 2024, only about a quarter of stocks actually outperformed the index. In any given year you can typically expect 45 to 50% to alpha.

Wes Moss [00:19:10]:
So that was way under way, very narrow and even it was even more.

Connor Miller [00:19:14]:
Narrow than that because 75 to 80% of the return was limited to 7 to 10 stocks. 2025 saw a much broader experience for the average stock and still only about a third of companies actually outpace the index. But when you take a deeper look at that, more than half of companies in the S&P 500 finished up more than 10%. So even though it was still a little bit more narrow than what we’ve seen throughout history, the fact that it was so broad that more than half of companies saw double digit returns was a really good sign for balanced diversified investors.

Wes Moss [00:19:50]:
So we could continue to see the broadening out. Which to some extent brings us to number two. Artificial intelligence. Is it hype versus real world utility? I still haven’t figured out if artificial intelligence is. I still don’t think it for companies yet as revenue producing yet. But I certainly see it for reduction of cost and boost in productivity which does bring more dollars to the bottom line. So we could see profitability really start to go up in 2026 potentially with all that companies have implemented. Because now we’re in year four of artificial intelligence and that is what the.

Connor Miller [00:20:33]:
Market is pricing in. When you look at earnings estimates, I like to think of this in three different tiers. You have kind of your scene of the crime artificial intelligence builders.

Wes Moss [00:20:45]:
The builders.

Connor Miller [00:20:46]:
These are things like semiconductors or chips, these are things like data centers, software, what it takes to run these large language models. That was what initially and has continued to work in this current bull market that’s been primarily led by technology. The tier two is what we’re calling the AI enablers. So this is essentially what it takes to build and power AI. So you’ve think you’ve seen things like, or sectors like utilities do really well. You’ve seen sectors like industrials do really well. These are power, equipment, materials, all of the kind of the raw input that it takes to actually power artificial intelligence. And then the call that, that we’re making for 2026 is for this last tier, this AI adopter tier, which really is companies that kind of have nothing to do with artificial intelligence.

Connor Miller [00:21:40]:
But in the same way that they all benefited from the Internet, we believe it’s time for them to start seeing the productivity gains from their investments that they’ve been making over the last several years in AI, which could be a disappointment.

Wes Moss [00:21:54]:
I think that’s one of the risks in 2026. The it’s time to show me that all this investment is actually going to work towards the bottom line. It may not. Maybe this is the year we see profitability and margin expansion because of productivity gains. Maybe 27 and 28 are the next evolution where we’re seeing revenue gains as well.

Connor Miller [00:22:20]:
Yeah, and look, we think it’s going to be both. We think companies are going to be able to do more with the same and boost revenue. We think there’s an opportunity to cut costs along the way. And ultimately what that translates to is for the last several years there’s been a major disconnect in earnings growth among companies. And so when you look at it in one cohort of the Magnificent Seven, this is mostly companies in the AI builder space. Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, companies like that. And then the remaining 493 companies really haven’t participated to the same extent or even close to the same extent in earnings growth.

Wes Moss [00:23:02]:
So again, as a distinction for our audience, we’re talking about the growth of the profitability, not the stocks, but not the stock performance, but the bottom how much these companies are really taking home, bottom line profits.

Connor Miller [00:23:14]:
And as you go out over the next four quarters, you start to see this gap narrow to the point where in Q4 and these are estimates.

Wes Moss [00:23:24]:
So go back to the disconnects, go back to Q1 of year of 2025.

Connor Miller [00:23:28]:
So Q1 of 2025 for the trailing 12 months saw year over year earnings growth for the magnificent seven at 53%. The rest of the market, the S&P 500. So there’s 493 more companies saw earnings growth of just 5%, 53 versus 5 huge disconnect. This is the reason why you saw so much growth in the Magnificent Seven and other technology stocks as well. As we fast forward and again looking at estimates for the fourth quarter of this year. So essentially what we’re saying is 2026 earnings growth over 2025. The picture is much more balanced. You see a slowing of growth from the Magnificent Seven, you see an acceleration in growth from the remaining 4 and 93.

Connor Miller [00:24:14]:
And one thing to add they could.

Wes Moss [00:24:16]:
Even be even by then we could.

Connor Miller [00:24:17]:
See 15% growth from both basically balance at 15%. And I think one important distinction here is when you really start to get to the nuance of this and you look at how much in terms of dollars per share of earnings you’re paying for these companies, you’re still paying quite a bit more in terms of valuation multiples for the magnificent seven as you are for the remaining 493. So we admittedly think there’s opportunity there.

Wes Moss [00:24:43]:
How about the economic stimulus, the OB3, the one big beautiful bill that is fully in effect as we speak, the tax refunds, the stimulus, the $500 billion question, what does that extra stimulus do to GDP growth?

Connor Miller [00:25:01]:
Let’s start with the numbers. So in 2025 we had federal tax refunds of $360 billion for consumers. 2026 estimate. Sounds like a lot of it is a lot. After the changes to the tax code and the one big beautiful bill act, we’re expected to see about $520 billion of tax refunds. That’s an incremental $160 billion, or if you want to do easy Math, it’s about $1,000 per employed person that they get to keep and hopefully reinvest and spend back into the economy. So it’s a big number when you think about it in terms of overall gdp, it’s about half a percent. But remember, all of this is going to be hitting in late February, March, April during tax filing season.

Connor Miller [00:25:53]:
And so it’s all kind of front loaded and you get a much bigger impact during that season.

Wes Moss [00:26:00]:
Just to clarify, $160 billion in extra, let’s say spending this year that we did not see last year would boost the very difficult number to move because it’s so giant, which is total gross domestic product in the United States. It would boost that by a full 20%, which a half a percent of new growth on two and a half get. It gets us to 20% growth on GDP just because of that particular all else being equal.

Connor Miller [00:26:29]:
And that’s not even factoring in tax cuts that businesses are going to see, which could be another 150 to 200 billion dollars. So a lot of stimulus on the way for the economy in 2026.

Wes Moss [00:26:41]:
All right, next, let’s answer the question around the Federal Reserve and the shift in interest rates they’ve been cutting. But where do we go from here? What does it mean?

Connor Miller [00:26:49]:
So speaking of stimulus, we know in the same way that when the Fed was raising rates, it was pulling Liquidity or stimulus out of the market. Since they’ve been cutting now for the last year and a half, it’s been stimulating the economy and they’ve made the decision that inflation for the most part has been handled. We’re still kind of around that 3% range. Now they’re focusing on the employment picture and trying to normalize rates. And they just cut in the back half of last year three times, three quarter point cuts. And we think we could see another one to two quarter point cuts throughout 2026 again at even so another half a percent lower. Exactly.

Wes Moss [00:27:32]:
Which leaves about, and this is a record $7.6 trillion right now sitting in money markets. There’s almost $8 trillion sitting in cash on the sidelines. And that’s been encouraged, if you will, by those higher rates. As those rates come down, investors are less likely to want to let the money sit in a money market. One thing when it’s 5%, thinking it’s okay to leave it there. We get to the point where money market rates are at 2% and I’m not saying we’re going to go that low this year. There’s some more motivation to get that money invested and move out of money markets into companies. Midterm elections, how volatile in the presidential cycle, who wins in November? I want to know everything that’s going to happen, really.

Wes Moss [00:28:22]:
I just want to know what’s going to happen in the markets.

Connor Miller [00:28:24]:
So midterm years, if you think about the presidential cycle being four years, midterm years are the not only the most volatile year of the four year presidential cycle, they’re also the least returning over that period.

Wes Moss [00:28:38]:
So out of the four years, so you’ve got the post election year where we are, well, where we were last year, now we’re midterm, next year’s the post midterm and then we have an election year. So those are the four years and this one has the most volatility and the lowest overall return.

Connor Miller [00:28:54]:
Still positive though, since 1953, you see about an average 18% pullback in midterm years and only return 7%, which is the lowest of the four year residential cycle.

Wes Moss [00:29:07]:
Essentially expect volatility this year and really.

Connor Miller [00:29:11]:
You can chalk that up to just there’s more uncertainty in the market. We don’t know what the balance of power is is gonna be come November. Over the last 10 elections that we’ve had, nine of them have seen the party in power shift. So we’ll probably see that happen again here in November. And so it just, it brings more uncertainty to the markets.

Wes Moss [00:29:33]:
All right. Does that mean we can have another good year, Connor Miller or not?

Connor Miller [00:29:36]:
I think summing it all up, there’s no reason to believe you can’t have another good year in the market. We continue to see this bull market run. We’re going to continue to see headlines regarding tariffs, regarding the employment, regarding geopolitical conflicts that pop up here and there. But overall, I think you only think.

Wes Moss [00:29:54]:
We got rid of all the geopolitical headlines. Didn’t we get that out of the way in the first week of the year?

Connor Miller [00:30:00]:
I think we’ve got rid of all of it for this week.

Wes Moss [00:30:02]:
That’s about right.

Connor Miller [00:30:03]:
But the the earnings backdrop looks really good heading into this year. And so again, I past performance can’t guarantee future results, but everything we see looks like it could be set up for another good year.

Wes Moss [00:30:15]:
The other thing I keep hearing about the let’s say 2026 is the show me year for the AI build out and that all the capital expenditures were spent on data centers. That has a long way to go. Data center doesn’t take three months to build. The data centers take two years to build.

Connor Miller [00:30:35]:
We really only started late 2024, 2025 really started ramping up. We’re going to continue to see that.

Wes Moss [00:30:42]:
There’s a lot of activity that’ll continue throughout this entire year when it comes to the AI data center build out. And we’re going to continue to cover it right here on money matters. And if you’d like to find Connor Miller and me and our team, it’s easy to do so. You can find us@yourwealth.com that’s y o u r your wealth.com we’d love to hear from you and have a wonderful rest of your day.

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