Q: On a recent Money Matters show you mentioned that there are 2 economic indicators that would predict election results…I missed it. What are they?
A: Here are the two most predictive economic data points for who gets elected this Fall:
1. Unemployment Rate: From our measures the “incumbent” needs the UE Rate to dip to 7.6% or below if there is any chance of re-election. Today the rate is at 8.2%.
2. Per Capita GDP Growth: Needs to be at a positive rate to get re-elected…actually closer to 1.8% or higher. Per capita GDP growth means “growth” in the amount each person in America contributes to our economy. No president since WWII has been elected with this rate below 1.8%. Today it stands close to zero.